Indian Economy : In the Midst of a Pandemic

 India is facing three crises at one time- Economic crisis; Financial crisis & Medical Crisis.Unemployment at all-time high.

The MSME sector, which constitutes 30% of GDP, 45% of manufacturing, 50% of exports and perhaps employs 12 crore people is in bad shape.
Agriculture displays what’s wrong with Indian policy making
·         remains a family enterprise and not a business enterprise.
·          we overuse urea whilst under-consuming potassium and nitrates.
·         unchecked wastage of agricultural produce which is as high as 30-40% of the country’s agricultural output.
The Netherlands, a very small country, exports  USD 80 billion worth of agricultural products each year. India, an incomparably far bigger country, only exports $25 billion of agricultural products.
 
The Way out :
1.   The cumulative value of India’s gold imports could be as high as $500 billion ( legal and Illegal) .World Gold Council - household gold in India is as much as 25,000 tonnes worth $2 trillion. Much of this is undeclared.
   Announcement of  a Gold amnesty scheme making this gold    legal could easily tap hundreds of billions of dollars.
 President Roosevelt in 1933, to dig the USA out of the prevailing depression, nationalised gold and the American people accepted that decision without demur. In contrast, Morarji Desai’s Gold Control Act, which he emphasised did not nationalise gold but only restricted its holding, was responded to with multiple ways of evasion and avoidance.
2.   Madam Harsimran kaur – Why did you resign?  You liked the  erstwhile draconian and sleepy APMC era?  In a blunt way, what is wrong if  there is a ( unreasoned)  fear of Agriculture getting privatized ?. Is Education not privatized? Is Health not privatized ; Is Banking not privatized? Is the lifeline of communication –Internet- not privatized?  ( In fact, Privatization of country  have saved this Nation from going to penury. Why do not you see Privatization with the eyes of entrepreneurship of hardworking Indian men & women; rather than a fear of Adani or Ambani ( In fact these names have done lesser disservice  to the society) . Postal Services died; Courier companies came to rescue.  Government Policing overloaded or oversatisfied  enough to perform; Private Security Services came with massive employment potential. Endless examples..Therefore,  No vote-bank politics  with Agriculture  Pls.
3.   Please speed up divestment and strategic alliance of BPCL, SCI, CONCOR, AIR INDIA, NBCC, PFC, HUDCO, IRCON, IRCTC etc to unlock huge value and get enough money for Stimulus package or for a financial Thrust to MSMEs ( Pls do not make yourself a laughing stock of selling one PSU to another PSU ( HPCL to ONGC)  and  value destruction to both.  
Economy shrank in Q1 ; would be no better in Q2 and Q3 albeit a little improvement. Corona and financial liquidity if maintained, Q 4 would be positive.
PM Sahab ! Please have control over some sub-standard  Media Channels – They are expert in diverting poor Citizens mind from something serious to non-serious stuff.

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Morning Jewel-22.10.2020

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